While Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was visiting Syria and Turkey last May, analysts were busy asking one question: “Has Russia returned to the Middle East?”

A better assessment would say that at this stage, Russia is trying to return to the neighborhood, having not yet fully made a comeback. Over the past two decades, many Arab leaders arrived knocking at the gates of the Kremlin, asking Russia to play the role once played by the Soviet Union in the Middle East. This was needed, they claimed, to create a regional balance and curb the snowballing influence of the United States on the Arab world—along with all of its negative symptoms.

The Russians, however, were not ready—not even for a trial—in former familiar territory throughout the Arab World. Whenever they tried to flex their muscle, the Russians were cut short by the US, which had grown to dominate the Middle East, at expense of the former Soviet Union, since the early 1990s. Simply put, Russian influence was retreating on all fronts, starting with the peace process which it had co-launched with the US at Madrid back in 1991, onto the situation in Iraq before, during, and after the war of 2003, and finally, in Moscow’s inability to put together a international peace conference similar to the one staged at Annapolis in November 2007.

President Medvedev’s visit to Ankara and Damascus, however, are testimony that Russia is being to view itself differently. Domestically it has settled its own house, now with a market economy up and running instead of the planned one that existed in the past. It then focused on its own backyard through regaining lost influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In August 2008 it intervened to halt a military assault by the Georgian Army in South Ossetia. Last April, Moscow supported an uprising in Kyrgyzstan to overthrow a pro-US leader then backed Viktor Yanukovych who is close to the Kremlin, as president of Ukraine, bringing an end, once and for all, to the Orange Revolution that since 2004, has produced heads of state were loyal to the United States.

Russia then shifted attention to the Middle East. President Bashar al-Assad had visited Moscow three times in recent years, in 2005, 2006, and 2008, only this time, things happened differently when Medvedev decided to land in Damascus. It was the first visit by a Russian President to Syria, either from the Soviet or post-Soviet era. Even during the ‘golden years’ of Syrian-Soviet relations, never did a Soviet President come to Damascus. To read more into Russian thinking, one needs to go to the editorial written by Medvedev—a precedent in its own right—for the Syrian daily al-Watan. The Russian leader wrote, “Naturally, elevating bilateral relations to a new level requires efforts. Before anything else, it requires multi-level political dialogue. What unites us is the idea of creating a just world order, based on the rule of law and equality between all nations—be them small or large—and to work amongst them to solve international affairs facing the world in the 21st century.” He adds that on his agenda with the Syrian leader are topics of high concern to the international community, claiming that what unites him with Syria is the common vision for a new multi-polar world order. With no doubt, the Russians realize that this bipolar new world order will be based on interests and economies rather than ideology. In his editorial, Medvedev adds, “We should re-build bilateral trade to $2 billion USD annually, rather than the few million that it currently stands at.”

The Kremlin’s young and dynamic leader realizes that the keys to re-engagement in the world order can be found in the Middle East, while the keys to the Middle East can be found in Damascus. Within this context, we can read into Medvedev’s high profile meeting with Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal in Damascus. Russia, which is a member of the Quartet and the Security Council, was the only country with an exclusive open channel with Hamas since the Islamic group’s 2006 parliamentary victory. The meeting was breaking news indeed, given that Hamas does not abide by conditions of the Quartet, which calls on it to renounce violence, respect signed deals with Israel, and recognize it (Israel). Twice, Meshaal visited Moscow based on his request. What is new is that two months ago, Russian Foreign Minister Serge Lavrov invited Meshaal to visit Moscow and now, Medvedev agreed to elevate dialogue with Hamas to the highest level.

The new level of senior contacts between Moscow and Hamas can be traced to several domestic and foreign factors. One is Russia’s desire to regain its role in the neighborhood and entire world order. Moscow is additionally upset that it was unable to hold the desired peace conference in 2008, due US unilateralism, and believes that it is the only superpower that can bring all influential players in the region to one negotiating table. Meaning, Russia’s relationship with Hamas is an asset rather than a burden for the Kremlin. Moscow after all wants the world to understand that it is able to conduct a direct dialogue with hands-on players who call the shots in the Middle East. Having that said, the war launched within Russia against radical Islamists is by no means a Russian war on Islam. This is a message that Russia wants the world to hear, and it comes across strong when a senior Islamic leader like Meshaal condemns any attack on Russian civilians by Chechen warriors.

In come the Syrians, who facilitated and hosted the Medvedev-Meshaal summit, firmly committed to empowering their allies, which in turn, makes Syria a stronger regional and international player. All options are on the table for Damascus, the Medvedev visit seemed to be saying, all options remain open for Syria. The road to Iran is strategic while Syrian-Turkish relations are booming, while bilateral relations with Riyadh are on the rise. While Syrian-EU relations are developing well, a direct Syrian-US channel has been opened since President Barack Obama came to power in 2009. Despite progress on this front, a tripartite meeting took place in Damascus last February, bringing President Bashar al-Assad with his Iranian counterpart Mahmud Ahmadinejad and Hizbullah Secretary-General Hasan Nasrallah. Three months later, another tripartite meeting took place—with different players—this time bringing Syria, Turkey, and Qatar together in mid-May.

Then came the Assad-Medvedev meeting in Damascus.

Serge Lavrov is un-impressed with the saying that goes, “Russia has returned to the Middle East.” That was made clear during a chat he had while in Damascus during the Medvedev visit, where he preferred to say: “Russia has always been here!” Reality is somewhere in between since the international community has changed after collapse of the Berlin Wall and end of the Cold War. There is indeed a new world order, different from the bipolar one shared during the 20th century between the United States and Soviet Union. It is equally different from the uni-polar one that has been around for the past 20-years, monopolized by the United States. Today there is a far greater role than ever before for heavyweights like China, India, and Brazil. There are deals being struck between the Russians and the US, and plenty of talk about a balance and yet competition of power—all under one umbrella of a new world order.

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Ibrahim Hamidi is bureau chief for the London-based al-Hayat newspaper in Damascus.

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